Comment by roc | Hacker News Reader

Comment by roc | Hacker News Reader

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The real problem with the Segway are two primary things you're glossing over:

1. Gee-whiz technology, with non-trivial downsides, that could be obviated with a third wheel. [1]

2. Everyone-will-want-one marketing for a device with deal-breaker-level problems that are trivial to identify. [2]

The Segway was pitched as solving a problem that was clear and known: bicycles are great, but they're only appropriate and convenient for a certain range of riders and situations. And, in short, the Segway just doesn't present a better solution for most of those situations or riders.

[1] You mention people taking assisted tours. But how much larger would even that market be, if it included people who could stand, but couldn't risk going over the handlebars while learning to ride?

[2] A device of most interest in relatively population-dense settings that not only has no solution to, but actually amplifies the problems of a bicycle? e.g. stairs, parking. (by being massively more expensive and heavier)

> You mention people taking assisted tours. But how much larger would even that market be, if it included people who could stand, but couldn't risk going over the handlebars while learning to ride?

It wouldn't be significantly larger. The vast majority of people taking those tours aren't disabled, they're just looking for an easy way to do things. There aren't that many people who can stand but can't operate a segway and they're significantly dwarfed by the number of folks who can operate a segway.

Then again, I take segway tours whenever I can. What experience do you have with this market?

> "There aren't that many people who can stand but can't operate a segway"

I think this is where we're disagreeing. I've met plenty of people who can stand, but couldn't handle a walking tour and simply cannot take the risk of a spill from a bicycle, Segway or scooter.

And while they're definitely dwarfed by people who can use a Segway, I believe they make up a significant fraction of those people for whom an electronically-assisted, yet-more-stable tour holds a natural appeal over a bicycle, walk, or scooter tour.

> And while they're definitely dwarfed by people who can use a Segway, I believe they make up a significant fraction of those people for whom an electronically-assisted, yet-more-stable tour holds a natural appeal over a bicycle, walk, or scooter tour.

Like I wrote, I've been on lots of Segway tours. Almost everyone on them is physically capable of doing walking, biking, or scooter tours, yet they do Segway tours. (In fact, I've seen those same people doing other kinds of tours as well.)

Your entire argument for assumes otherwise. What's your supporting evidence?

My entire point is about a different market with different needs.

It's like we're both standing at an amusement park and we're looking at an electric go-kart racing ride.

I'm suggesting the general concept, an electric mini-car, holds a natural appeal for a different market. A market for whom a relatively quick and nimble electric mini-car would be great, and for more than just racing their friends in circles.

So I'm suggesting it's odd that one would create a company to deliver electric mini-cars but stick to the racing go-kart form-factor to the exclusion of, really, any other market where the general technology is appealing, but the existing form factor is inappropriate.

And you're replying that this other market doesn't exist, because you've done a lot of go-kart racing and you've only seen fit people in line. And they get in line, even though they could hold a bicycle or foot race. So why would I think anyone else is interested?

And do see how the motivations of fit people choosing go-kart racing are wholly irrelevant to my hypothesis? Even if I'm right, the mini-cars I'm talking about likely wouldn't ever replace the existing karts for racing. Even if the older and moderately disabled folks use their devices for racing amongst themselves, that has no necessary bearing on what other people would prefer.

I'm talking about something wholly different.

And all I have is anecdotal evidence that the market exists. But I find it hard to believe you don't know, or can't even conceive of, any older or moderately disabled people for whom a more-stable device that retained the quickness and agility of a Segway would hold an appeal.

I've spent quite a bit of time with older and moderately disabled people, working in and around healthcare, and there is no shortage of these people who express a simultaneous interest in something that mobile, and a disappointment that it doesn't exist in a more stable variety.

> My entire point is about a different market with different needs.

This whole line of discussion started with:

>>The Segway gets a lot of flack, but it's actually catching on as a tourist device. People who would normally exhaust themselves completely - or who wouldn't be able to do a tour of a place at all - now have the option of purchasing so-called guided tours on Segways.

My point is that said market doesn't have those characteristics. My evidence is that I participate in said market.

If you have evidence about a different market, great - let's see it.

If you're just imagining a market ....

> And all I have is anecdotal evidence that the market exists.

What, exactly, are those anecdotes?

> But I find it hard to believe you don't know, or can't even conceive of, any older or moderately disabled people for whom a more-stable device that retained the quickness and agility of a Segway would hold an appeal.

I can conceive of them. My point is that they're not a significant part of the current segway tourism market. Moreover, said market is already significantly larger than the population you're talking about, so a segway alternative that served them can't significantly increase the size of that market.

> I've spent quite a bit of time with older and moderately disabled people, working in and around healthcare, and there is no shortage of these people who express a simultaneous interest in something that mobile, and a disappointment that it doesn't exist in a more stable variety.

Great, but as I pointed out, irrelevant to the segway tourism market. Moreover, it's going to be smaller than the current segway tourism market.

It's good to come up with ways to serve an underserved market. However, that doesn't imply that an existing market is going to adjust to satisfy that underserved market.

Don't forget the all important #3; riding a Segway makes you look like a total tool.

For most of the people for whom an electronic scooter makes more sense than a bicycle, they're well past caring about that.

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