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Comment by ethbr1 | Hacker News Reader

The point of modern sanctions is not that it makes import impossible (look at Russian circumvention for dual-use military technologies), but that it makes import at whole-economy scale more expensive and unreliable.

And ultimately that's what imposes economic costs.

It'll be curious how much of the gap is filled by substitute Chinese goods. (E.g. the domestic CFM-alternative engine projects [0])

With the wrinkle that Russia and China are united by their geopolitical opponents more than their friendship, and Xi doesn't seem thrilled about shackling the Chinese economy to the consequences of Russian war.

[0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACAE_CJ-1000A

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Russia is a civilian aircraft producer. There's no need for Chinese airplanes (which they have troubles with).

> Russia is a civilian aircraft producer

Massive difference between airliners and aircraft. Russia has not shown itself capable of mass manufacturing airliners. (Or even advanced aircraft for that matter.)

That said, as a petro state, they’re fine running inefficient engines across their skies.

Are you serious? Look up SSJ-100 production numbers.

> Look up SSJ-100 production numbers

Now look at them post sanctions.

The SSJ-100 contains far more important systems (not parts) [1] than e.g. Embraer’s regional jets. It was designed with consultation from Boeing, including throughout manufacturing. Russia’s indigenous jets are terrible, and there is no reason to expect them to improve, they can’t compete against the Chinese for the anti-Western market.

To be fair to Sukhoi, this is how Boeing builds planes. If America were sanctioned by its allies, I’d similarly argue that Boeing, too, is incapable of mass manufacturing airliners.

[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20190402154855/https://www.uacru...

>The SSJ-100 contains far more important systems (not parts) than e.g. Embraer’s regional jets

Embraer jets all use Pratt & Whitney engines which is the hardest part to replace.

> they can’t compete against the Chinese for the anti-Western market.

All Chinese jet airplanes use Western engines and other systems[0][1]. China can't sell them on the anti-Western market just like Russia wasn't allowed to sell Tu-204SM with PS-90A2 engines co-developed with Pratt & Whitney[2].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C909

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comac_C919

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aviadvigatel_PS-90#PS-90A2

Russia can't make more SSJ-100. End of story.

Compared to other airliners those production number are small.

Russia only needs to supply herself, not other markerts. Which manufacturers do you compare with?

Russia officially built only one SSJ in 2024 – RA-89192. But in fact it was originally built in 2022 and it is probably the last SSJ-100 ever produced.

>last SSJ-100 ever produced

Yes, of course. The version of SSJ-100 with Russian-made engines and other systems is called SJ-100.

[0] https://www.uacrussia.ru/ru/aircraft/lineup/civil/superjet-1...

There is no such thing as an SSJ-100 with Russian-made engines, period. Airlines cannot buy them, and you cannot fly them. Even the MC-21 is slightly more realistic, but it is also not available to any airline.

We have been hearing this never-ending story of "aircraft will be available in 2 years" for a very long time. :)

SJ-100 with PD-8 already flew in 2023[0], after a year of fixing engine problems, it is about to fly again.

[0] https://viam.ru/news/8822

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