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Comment by fny | Hacker News Reader

Give it time y'all. This is the first inning, and I'm already terrified.

I encourage you to have a conversation with ChatGPT's advanced audio for a taste of what's to come. If you can, have someone talk to it in a relatively unpopular language like Afrikaans or even Icelandic--they will shit their pants.

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I'm not so convinced. A lot of people have been noting the rapid development of ML systems in the past few years and projecting continued exponential improvements based on previous growth rates, but unbounded exponential improvement doesn't happen. This is an S curve and I think we're already well into the diminishing returns part of the curve. I think future growth is going to require increasingly impractical amounts of hardware for ever smaller levels of improvement.

People saying that this version is flawed but still amazing, so the next version is going to be perfect and mind blowing are going to be disappointed I think. The next version will be slightly better but still flawed. The version after that will be a touch better but annoyingly still not quite there. Constantly teasing you that full success is just around the corner while never quite getting there.

I'd be terrified if anyone considers this reporting watchable. I felt depressed after 30 seconds. It's like an episode of Black Mirror.

> This is the first inning

I think this is the key part.

How is a very off putting start a good thing?

The videos in question would’ve been considered science fiction a mere 5 years ago, so I definitely don’t consider them a very off putting start.

That doesn’t mean that I think they’re perfect or that the technology will keep improving at a fast pace (nobody knows for sure).

Yeah it's very hard to do and once it's done it's very off putting. And this is not about first results, this has been on the works for years and after hundreds of billions of dollars of investment it is very off putting. We're not at the concept phase, we're at the top of the logistic curve and the whole shtick is arguing that we're at the bottom.

But this could be a strange form of baseball that only has two innings. No one knows for sure either way.

I don't know, I may be old fashioned, but if I find out that a podcast I like is just audio generated by an AI it's going into the digital garbage bin. I think a lot of people think like me, as I'm not -that- weird. Maybe I'm wrong, and the younger generations are going to welcome in AI as a replacement for humans on something as person as a podcast. It all just seems so fake to me, I have no interest in it.

I tried Claude to translate basic text to Finnish for me and it was utterly horrible.

And by basic I mean grammar structure that was taught in like first chapters of a textbook.

Is ChatGPT any better at it? My take is that there simply aren't enough training materials.

Terrified of what? and First inning of what, when did that inning start?

Is there an open source GPT? I have LM studio and Qwen 2.5 which is basically as good as leading models in Nov 2024, but haven't found the software to run audio or video generation.

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