> calculated in inflationary dollars one currently expects to see a -14% return on investment
Do you mean if one invested in EE-Bonds alone and not in something that moves with inflation?
Do you mean if one invested in EE-Bonds alone and not in something that moves with inflation?
A) Low birth rate leads to a Population/Population disposable income total(not per capita) will decrease, and thus gross capitalization decreases reducing stock value. Decreasing the benefit of investing in index funds potentially catastrophically. B) Inflation will be/remain high(or above earning increases) for core expenses (housing, food, water, gas, transport)
Sometimes with the argument that B happening will cause A to happen (e.g. more expensive = less attractive for young immigrants, less attractive to have kids)
I agree with some of it (for example disposable income inequality and core inflation issues are indeed causing a cost of living crisis which is discouraging growth), but I advise NOT to go down the rabbit hole of these channels, as they can give you a lot of anxiety.
It is absurd, but sycophantic idealism starts to sound really funny when you dig into the numbers. =3
Disclaimer: This is not advice, so YMMV etc... note most financial "advisors" will quietly have >80% of their investments in boring index funds. Unbounded advisors at banks etc. generally do not "practice what one preaches" when there is no legal repercussions for lying to you.
Best of luck, =3