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For the US Navy, admitting a friendly fire shootdown has got to be the most embarrassing thing imaginable. So, yes, I do believe them.

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Really? I feel like "Iran shot down a US Navy jet" is more embarrassing than "the US shot down a US Navy jet." Not for the pilots responsible, but for the Navy as a whole. I don't have any insight on this particular story though.

Why would that be embarrassing? No aircraft is invulnerable, especially not conventional (non-stealth) aircraft.

I don’t think there is any general expectation among the American public or military that American aircraft will never be shot down.

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