> You seem to be assuming that the rapid progress in AI will suddenly stop.

And you seem to assume that it will just continue for 5 years. We've already seen the plateau start. OpenAI has tacitly acknowledged that they don't know how to make a next generation model, and have been working on stepwise iteration for almost 2 years now.

Why should we project the rapid growth of 2021–2023 5 years into the future? It seems far more reasonable to project the growth of 2023–2025, which has been fast but not earth-shattering, and then also factor in the second derivative we've seen in that time and assume that it will actually continue to slow from here.