I'm not going to comment on that sweeping over-generalization of the totality of human history because it is vague to the point of meaninglessness.
I'm not going to comment on that sweeping over-generalization of the totality of human history because it is vague to the point of meaninglessness.
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Piketty2015AER.pdf
https://wid.world/news-article/whats-new-about-wealth-inequa...
I'm all for discussing other issues in their own space and with clarity, but if people come to a discussion about income and start citing things that are not about income, I'll be honest I don't tend to want to engage. It's vibes, like I said.
What numbers in particular do you think could be more useful?
And I think that's bunk, because what other people are making or can afford says absolutely nothing about my financial situation. If your next door neighbor wins the lottery, does that make you poorer? If they lose their job, are you richer? No.
Income inequality is a different issue. I'm happy to discuss it, but not if I have to start by defending a (wildly incorrect!) assertion that standards of living are going down and not up.
>because what other people are making or can afford says absolutely nothing about my financial situation
No offence but I don't care about your financial situation. I care about the financial situation of most people, and if they increasingly can't afford necessities like housing or food I also really couldn't care less that the numbers going into their bank account have gone up since last year.
My point is material goods and economic markers can increase on paper whilst people can increasingly be restricted from the housing market, career prospects, and other factors not easily reflected in said markers. If you are interested in defending the fact that those markers are indeed doing fine then you're in a debate with yourself. The relevance of those markers is not obvious, or trivial to justify in relation to the actual world people are living in
I think it's not about income or living standards, which is what you started talking about. So I'm not interested in discussing it with you in this thread because I don't trust you to treat the ideas with precision and good faith.
I would like you to post numbers. "National wealth" is not a vague notion, it's the product of lots of government workers doing a lot of statistics. Some of those statistics are target specifically at the bottom quintile or decile of income or wealth (they are vastly different).
Income for the bottom 10% is rising. Wealth for the bottom 10% is rising. Gen Z is unprecedentedly rich at this point in their lives, relative to past generations. The reason why the American middle class has shrunk is mostly because the upper class has grown. The third link below has a graph that highlights why this is a GOOD THING.
I don't doubt that quality-of-life has declined for a lot of people - but those people are a minority and the data does not support anything else. Most of their pain is almost certainly housing prices, which have been the Great Sin of the Democratic party and notably have very little to do with federal policy.
If you want to talk about vague notions, let's talk about "wealth inequality." Most of these takes are bad because that's not how the stock market works. Elon Musk cannot go out tomorrow and buy $3XXB of stuff. He probably cannot even come CLOSE to realizing the full paper value of his net worth in cash. None of the world's rich can. Yet there is a daily, breathless headline about wealth inequality that waves those dollar figures around like they're real.
Stop disregarding on actual, economic data in favor of hyperbolic headlines about wealth inequality.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N
https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/family-finan...
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/animation-collapse-middle-c...
Wow what a convincing justification for the need to equate the measurement of rising capital within national jurisdictions over an analysis that acknowledges the distinction between revenue among fortune 500 shareholders and the average person who is not exposed to such returns.
>Income for the bottom 10% is rising. Wealth for the bottom 10% is rising.
If income for the bottom majority increases at a rate slower than the income of the top minority then "income" is being concentrated upward. Money determines the distribution of resources, it is not a resource itself. If the concentration of the ability to determine resources is increasingly concentrated upwards then people are getting poorer, regardless if overall production has increased.
Your idea that everyone is actually getting richer and upwardly mobile is not reflected in reality.
http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/Piketty2015AER.pdf
https://wid.world/news-article/whats-new-about-wealth-inequa...
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10888-010-9155-y
>I don't doubt that quality-of-life has declined for a lot of people - but those people are a minority and the data does not support anything else. Most of their pain is almost certainly housing prices, which have been the Great Sin of the Democratic party and notably have very little to do with federal policy.
How do skyrocketing housing prices not factor into your judgment that people's quality of life isn't declining?? I don't care who you want to blame it on (!?), not being able to afford a house makes people's lives worse and more people can't afford houses...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/asse...
https://www.harvardmagazine.com/2024/11/housing-affordabilit...
>Most of these takes are bad because that's not how the stock market works. Elon Musk cannot go out tomorrow and buy $3XXB of stuff. He probably cannot even come CLOSE to realizing the full paper value of his net worth in cash. None of the world's rich can. Yet there is a daily, breathless headline about wealth inequality that waves those dollar figures around like they're real.
Who's saying that Elon Musk is walking around with a trillion bank notes in his pockets like Scrooge McDuck? You're arguing with shadows, and if you think that wealth is not being upwardly concentrated in the top 1% - which is justified by any metric regardless of the stock market or unrealized assets - then I don't see what I'm going to get out of a discussion with someone so utterly removed from reality.
https://ourworldindata.org/the-history-of-global-economic-in...
https://web.archive.org/web/20161225142704/https://www.white... (page 60)
>Stop disregarding on actual, economic data in favor of hyperbolic headlines about wealth inequality.
It's always a pain talking to someone who is delusional enough to think that the hodge-podge of synthetic economic markers or data visualizations cobbled together by "visualcapitalist.com" is even close to being remotely objective or scientific.
Can you try to make an actual argument against specific government numbers? This is hand-waving but you're making an absolutely gigantic claim.
> If income for the bottom majority increases at a rate slower than the income of the top minority then "income" is being concentrated upward.
The set of people in the bottom 10% is not constant and most of them will LEAVE that bottom 10% over their lives. I suppose people becoming wealthy is concentration, but this is a good thing. It means the system is delivering.
> Your idea that everyone is actually getting richer and upwardly mobile is not reflected in reality.
You have three links there. The first, from Piketty, has nothing to do with upward mobility and in fact gels very nicely with the data I linked. The second and third are again breathlessly considering net worth in illiquid assets as if it was cash.
Not a single one of these talks about social mobility or how individual's income changes. I'm not telling you wealth inequality isn't going up, just that its impact is greatly overstated and individual income is overwhelmingly the biggest driver of quality-of-life.
> How do skyrocketing housing prices not factor into your judgment that people's quality of life isn't declining?? I don't care who you want to blame it on (!?), not being able to afford a house makes people's lives worse and more people can't afford houses...
Because generally a hair under 70% of housing units in the US are occupied by their owner (more Fed data), so only a hair over 30% of people are subject to housing cost inflation. Not all of those people live in desirable cities where rents are insanely high.
Even among those who do, rents in those VHCOL cities have not inflated (Fed data again) and less than half of renters are considered burdened.
No matter how you slice it, only around 15% of households could possibly care about rent inflation. The inconvenient truth is that the majority of Americans are structurally protected from it.
> Who's saying that Elon Musk is walking around with a trillion bank notes in his pockets like Scrooge McDuck? You're arguing with shadows, and if you think that wealth is not being upwardly concentrated in the top 1% - which is justified by any metric regardless of the stock market or unrealized assets - then I don't see what I'm going to get out of a discussion with someone so utterly removed from reality.
He's not worth a trillion dollars, and IDGAF about him carrying physical currency. The point I'm making is that you are being ridiculous by complaining about government statistics from actual economists while breathlessly accepting every "wealth inequality" headline as gospel.
Yes, Elon Musk is absurdly wealthy. That's what happens when you have huge stakes in the leading aerospace and car company in the US. But once we talk about large amounts of stock, wealth is ONLY VAGUELY the same as cash in the bank.
> It's always a pain talking to someone who is delusional enough to think that the hodge-podge of synthetic economic markers or data visualizations cobbled together by "visualcapitalist.com" is even close to being remotely objective or scientific.
Attack the actual data. That "visualcapitalist.com" animation also uses Fed data.
If you are going to claim that the government numbers are trash, you need to do a lot better than calling me names.
How about you actually respond to my points (government data is not "vague numbers", the bottom 10% is a statistical artifact and individuals move in and out of it frequently) instead of ranting about how the government is untrustworthy?
>I suppose people becoming wealthy is concentration, but this is a good thing.
Would you apply the same logic for oligarchs in a failed state? Or robber barons in the oil rush? I suppose you wouldn't be the first. When the average person of this generation finds themselves in an increasingly more financially precarious situation than the one previous that analogy feels less hyperbolic. Especially when we actually try to consider the class of people with the most leverage and influence over political and economic decisions and their role in this process of wealth accumulation, instead of pretending economics is a natural phenomenon like the weather.
>It means the system is delivering
The truest thing you've said so far. Shame about who its delivering for.
So far your only criterion of a healthy economic system is if the most destitute in the world are worse off than before and insofar as it can be met you dismiss the more significant trend of wealth concentration as an insignificant happenstance rather than a fatal flaw.
But it’s not like you’re not doing the same thing in the opposite direction.
The only thing really factual here on your list is wealth inequality, although as recently in history as the gilded age it was the same or worse. You barely have to go back more than 100 years to witness children working in factories with no safety standards in the USA.
And really we don’t have to involve the totality of human history to talk about major problems in the 1960s/1970s or even 1990s that we don’t have anymore.
- Lack of regulations that led to the EPA. Your parents probably grew up in a more polluted environment today breathing leaded gasoline.
- Extremely recent prevalence of easily immunized diseases. Smallpox was eradicated in 1980 which wasn’t all that long ago. Polio also comes to mind.
- Developing countries like China where living standards have very obviously shot up by magnitudes in living memory
- Crime in the US at generally declining levels since the 1990s, which has resumed its decline since the pandemic spike.
- Arguably a decent amount less societal friction than the mid-century in America and more recently like with the LA riots. You don’t have to go far back in time to have civil rights problems like gay people being excluded from marriage, women being disallowed from opening a bank account on their own, Black people being prohibited from getting mortgages.
- Just the last decade of cancer treatment technology improvements has been incredible for late life longevity, and America’s best universal healthcare program (Medicare) has better outcomes than other wealthy countries’ universal healthcare systems.
- The continuation of life expectancy gains has only recently stalled and IMO this will likely tick up again as obesity becomes a treatable disease with simple pharmaceuticals.
- Safety standards and behavioral changes related to common causes of premature death. Factors like a more regulated tobacco industry and lower rates of smoking and motor vehicle safety improvements come to mind. A society that allowed cigarette companies to advertise with doctors as spokespeople is a society where you’re more likely to die early. A society where the youngest generation has lower usage of alcohol and drugs like Gen Z/Gen Alpha does is one that is going to have better life outcomes compared to one that has higher use rates, and that behavior is a result of improvements to the environment around them.
I could go on and on…yes things like housing and university have become very expensive, yes there are problems, but holistically you’d probably right rather be alive now than in 1970.
For someone interested in "rigor" I'm not sure how useful it is to weigh an arbitrary collection of goods like the EPA, eradicating smallpox and polio, etc. to a time before them in order to encourage me to answer that "I would rather be alive now". Angels on a pinhead etc. Seems a lot more useful to actually acknowledge the problems people complain about and think carefully about the specific dynamics that generate them rather than try convince them that everything's fine actually and they should just think about how good the polio vaccine is compared to Victorian work-houses.
>But it’s not like you’re not doing the same thing in the opposite direction.
Huh?
Increasing income inequality does not automatically mean that living standards are declining.
It can mean that the living standards of the wealthy is growing faster than the living standards of the less wealthy.
As an example, jump over to your LLM of choice and ask it to compare the rate of air conditioning in homes of people at the poverty line, comparing now to 1995. The numbers have jumped substantially since the cost including running cost (energy efficiency) of that technology has improved greatly.
You were confused at that statement of mine that you quoted. What I was trying to say is that you complained about posturing but then engaged in very similar posturing. You’ve made the baseline assumption that living standards are decreasing obviously without any substantiation.
And maybe you’re right, but you haven’t substantiated it, you’ve just engaged in the same style of posturing that you criticized.
Here’s a couple pieces that substantiates my point, which is that global poverty is decreasing (certainly with continuing challenges but overall decreasing): https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/WLD/wor...
Side-note but the articles you cited are funded by various non-profits including Bill Gates' foundation, departments of the british government and so on. It's a discussion for another day and I'm obviously not accusing it of outright fraud or anything but in my experience such "non-profits" and think tanks are tend to be most guilty of unhelpful or outright obscurest analysis of wealth inequality, unequal development and so on (as you one would probably expect of any institution funded by capital benefiting from such dynamics)