I’m confused. Can you help me understand your reasoning here?

Abstractly, if attribute K which is uncorrelated with merit is considered favorably during hiring, then merit will decrease as an outcome as compared to the baseline where attribute K is not considered, unless attribute K is used strictly as a tie breaker.

Do you think that DEI considerations are in fact strictly used as a tie breaker, and specifically in a government setting? Are there enough ties in the real world for the representation needle to be moved based on altering only tie decisions? I am skeptical of both of these based on my experience with DEI practices, and as far as I know they have moved the representation needle so something must be false.

I’m curious how you are thinking about it though, you sound fairly confident.