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ChatGPT has become a synonymous with chatbots and Thell be synonymous with AGI when it arrives. ChatGPT had 300 million weekly active users some time ago and it’s growing at an incredible clip. Normies now see OpenAI and chat bots like they view search engines and Google.

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Fast-forward in 10 years, we will have 128 GB of memory in our devices, better packed models and optimized LLM acceleration chips. Seems fine to run DeepSeek-R1 locally. So, no more OpenAI for day-to-day use unless a deep internet search is needed.

In this scenario, AI companies are frozen in time while personal electronics improve.

Ten years is a long time, make all forecasts with the confidence that you're likely wrong for reasons that haven't emerged yet.

AI companies != OpenAI and there is no guarantee that all the AI innovation in the future will even happen in the US.

That is precisely the point I'm making, though without any predictions or speculation myself.

DeepSeek gives for free, what OpenAI asks people to pay for. OpenAI is in a lot of trouble.

This is exactly what Google and OpenAi meant when they list "no moat" as a risk.

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