Not any more it's at 0.28% https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/20/additiona...
NASA Downgrades the Risk of 2024 YR4 to Below 1% (45 points, 11 hours ago, 54 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43148259
NASA Downgrades the Risk of 2024 YR4 to Below 1% (45 points, 11 hours ago, 54 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43148259
> Now that skies are darker after a week of limited visibility around full moon, astronomers have resumed observations
The estimates changed a lot because they were being very transparent about the information as they were discovering it.
[0]: https://blogs.nasa.gov/planetarydefense/2025/02/19/dark-skie...
Every observation narrows the range of possible trajectories. After the initial discovery, a lot of observations were scheduled.