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Comment by seanmcdirmid | Hacker News Reader

Why do people think it is so far fetched that Trump is a Russian asset given his behavior in his last term (trying to blackmail Zelenskyy on an official call) and his credit problems in the past (no banks would lend to him given his failure to pay back any loan, with the exception of an obscure channel through a German bank)? Perhaps Trump is just in debt to Putin and this is payback, he was intentionally crass to Zelenskyy because he wanted to provoke him and find an excuse to revoke US aid. If it barks like a dog, often it’s really a dog.

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It's the only explanation that makes any sense.

But it wouldn't be a financial debt more likely some humiliating kompromat. That's Trump's biggest fear.

And Putin probably has plenty from Trump's visits there.

What could they have on him that would matter? Honestly?

I don't really buy this kompromat argument, even if it was some horrific sex tape it would just be "fake" or "fake news".

I think it's likely just the flattery and importance they give him, the strongman image he desires and he likes the way Russia is a dictatorship. I just think he likes their system.

I think Trump would happily sell out the United States for a few billion dollars pumped into his memecoin (or whatever).

I don't go in for most conspiracy theories, but there is this: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/17/deutsche-ba...

(second half of the article)

The MAGA crowd literally is all about conspiracy theories, heck, Trump is the head conspiracy theorist-and-chief.

People don’t want to admit it.

I don't know how you define asset but it seems beyond doubt that Trump and Russia do each other favours.

The phone was a domestic politics issue.

Actual Russian assets exist, people like Jackson Hinkle and Tim Pool. Trump generally doesn't fit the mold.

A good method is to make predictions based on an assumption. A month ago, a CRAZY prediction of actions if Trump was a Russian agent would be:

Active attempts to remove Zelinsky. Stop all aid. Remove sanctions on Russia. Stop are cyber activity and planning of such against Russia.

Trump has done all of the above (well he's only ordered the removing of sanctions as of today).

Would Russian oil, which I seem to remember is heavy in grade, replace Canadian oil, which I hear is similarly heavy, in US refineries, explaining the 25% tariff on Canada which is implausibly supposed to be about fentanyl controls?

It would need to be transported by ship which presents some problems. Canadian oil has pipelines which are very cheap.

It's plausible that Trump owes some $$$ but what would stop Trump from just refusing to pay the debt back?

It would come as no surprise if Russian intelligence has some juicy blackmail material.

Against the man that seemingly suffered no setback from "grab her by the pussy" and all the various lawsuits?

Yes. For example if he were caught in the act with other men? That might cause the MAGAs to turn on him.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. Nothing sticks to him, and anything he does seems to get excused, so what kind of kompromat could even be severe enough to influence him?

The trouble is that his behavior vis a vis Russia is so difficult to explain otherwise. We've been at this long enough to know that if you just assume Russia has a relationship with him, you have a fairly good idea of how things are going to play out.

Imagine having fun with animals, men, children, bsdm and so on. That's not even bottom of the pit.

I mean he was a good friend with epstein and there are numerous videos of their friendly encounters (so did clinton, gates and so on just to be clear). Go figure.

But I think he is just a small insecure emotional boy at the core, and thats enough if you know which buttons in which order to push. ruskies somehow figured that out, it seems israelis too during his first term.

> Imagine having fun with animals, men, children, bsdm and so on. That's not even bottom of the pit.

Other than children/minors, I don’t think the others are likely. Possible, but not likely.

Whatever kompromat they have was almost certainly came during the 2013 miss universe pageant in Russia. It would have been trivially easy to get an old enough-looking minor in the room with him.

> It would come as no surprise if Russian intelligence has some juicy blackmail material.

I’m pretty sure the only blackmail that could be bad enough to motivate Trump would be if he had relations with a minor. I’m pretty sure that’s the only thing that could make the core of his base alienate him.

Whatever kinks people speculate about, none of that will matter. In fact, I bet whatever kink he is into would instantly become more popular amongst his core constituents.

I'm not even convinced him doing things witch a minor would make his base hate him. More likely is they'll just call it a lie or excuse it as something like "well she looked old enough. What was he supposed to do, ask for her ID card?"

Well, if he asked for her to look like his 13 (at the time) year old daughter?

It's almost like he was once investigated for being a Russian agent motivated by Kompromat. I'm sure it has nothing to do with being a friend of Epstein and showing up in the manifests or Russian prostitutes with water sports or the 13 year old who sued him for raping her, not dissimilar from the civil lawsuit where he was found guilty for raping another woman, not dissimilar from him bragging he can just sexual assault any woman he wants.

Balconies

They (the GOP, Democrats, national and intl intelligence agencies) all have blackmail on each other. It hasn't made sense to think about these issues purely on national lines for a long time - try thinking in terms of a large international mafia with various families and factions; held together by unspeakable secrets.

Sarah Kendzior and Whitney Webb produce great writing about this, thoroughly sourced. For example, here's a piece from Sarah's latest newsletter Q and A:

> What is the hold that Trump has over the Republicans? It has to be more than simply the threat of a primary. Do you think it involves threats of violence? It's a mystery to me what could be so frightening that this large group of people would forsake their country.

> SK: Trump has leverage over the GOP due to 1) lifelong connections with organized crime and willingness to deploy violence 2) blackmail obtained long before 2016 via his mentor, mafia lawyer and GOP advisor Roy Cohn, and Cohn’s networks 3) blackmail and state secrets Trump obtained during his first term 4) court packing that creates the potential of legal consequences for anyone who challenges him 5) bribery and/or shared evil goals with the GOP, though for many this incentive fades over time when they realize they will never be more than a disposable hired hand. Many Republicans were lured by corrupt ambition, but they stay due to fear.

And lest you think this is a one-sided problem: https://sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/servants-of-the-mafia-s...

Lmao, this is the dumbest conspiracy theory I’ve read in a while. National politicians are afraid of being murdered by the Mafia on Trump’s orders? Good grief.

Even if you put the absurdity of that kind of thing aside, look at the actual facts. Trump burns through advisors and cabinet members on a nearly weekly basis, and many of those have gone on to become scathing critics of his. He has tons of vocal enemies from within the Republican Party, who are quickly sidelined or ousted but never harmed.

The reason Republicans have all fallen in line behind Trump is because they ultimately want nothing more than power and wealth. Once it became clear that Trump has tapped into an indestructible movement of American populist stupidity that isn’t going anywhere, anyone who wanted to have a job in Republican politics quickly figured out that there was only one way to do so: join the never ending Trump pep-rally.

> National politicians are afraid of being murdered by the Mafia on Trump’s orders? Good grief.

Not what I said, or what Sarah said. But yes, politicians are getting threatened because of Trump. Politicians themselves report receiving hundreds of death threats; some of them seriously credible [0].

All Trump has to do is tweet, and people have their lives "turned upside down". They start getting death threats; even their boss gets threatened. And votes get changed around real quick. This is documented, on record - like Trump's connections... You might ask yourself why you never heard about it, and what else you never hear about.

> He has tons of vocal enemies from within the Republican Party, who are quickly sidelined or ousted but never harmed.

Drama which doesn't affect votes, or anything material, is best ignored as theater. Threats and theater - they do exist pal. They're very much part of politics, especially in the US, and have been for a long long time.

> Even if you put the absurdity of that kind of thing aside

It's not absurd at all. If you believe US politicians - and international politicians - don't get threatened, then you don't understand the stakes, or the amount of money involved, or the characters of these people.

> Once it became clear that Trump has tapped into an indestructible movement of American populist stupidity that isn’t going anywhere, anyone who wanted to have a job in Republican politics quickly figured out that there was only one way to do so: join the never ending Trump pep-rally.

And so Trump doesn't need or use blackmail, or threats of violence? Buddy. My guy.

0 - https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/republicans-...

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