Rambling about why a 50-50 forecast on a blowout election is "fine" and actually, like, totally cool and actually you're the dumb one for thinking it isn't, holds no water in my book. Election forecasters are not scientists discovering the nature of the universe, where it might be ok to say "yeah there's nothing to discover here" / "we don't know what we don't know". They're businesspeople selling a product. If AWS says "well, actually, hosting servers is just really really hard and its totally normal that 10% of your requests are failing!" they'd go out of business, full stop. No one is going to buy your product.

Trump did not win by a little bit. They missed something about the 2016 election, and it is wild that they missed it again EIGHT years later. Don't let them hide behind the veil of "we said it was 50-50!"