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I appreciate the Lindy effect, but I'd be very cautious in applying it in just any domain. In particular IT, where new project continually spring up to dethrone others. Another 30 years for Debian seems reasonable, but I'd probably bet against another 100. A metaculus question for the longevity of projects like debian would be fascinating.

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> In particular IT, where new project continually spring up to dethrone others.

The Lindy effect says nothing about popularity, which is how I translate your use of 'dethrone' here. It observes that something's duration of existence correlates with its chances for existence in the future.

> In particular IT, where new project continually spring up to dethrone others

Yet, it's lasted 31 years, which is a pretty insane amount of time in tech. This on top of being kept up to date, good structure, really good contributions and advancements.

On the other hand, you look at centos, redhat, and oracle and their debacle. How much did they fragment that area.

And then we have Debian just chugging along.

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