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Or politics, where confidently lying is an essential skill.

Is it? Seems like a lost art these days. Modern politicians hardly put in any effort making up convincing and subtle lies anymore..

and it still works. And problem seems to be related to the unconditional trust of LLM output.

Too many don't knows, when they should they are stupid

Too little don't knows and end up being wrong, an idiot.

There is lying and there is being incompetent.

Then the optimal strategy is to never say "don't know" and never get caught lying.

Seems to work for many people. I suspect my career has been hampered by a higher-than-average willingness to say "I don't know"...