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Comment by riffraff | Hacker News Reader

> it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well

influence for sure. But trade? Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia already have ~40% of their imports from China and 5% or so from the US, I don't think this tariff can realistically increase trade between China and SEA countries much.

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What about the inverse though; Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia increasing their exports to China?

China has been trying to build up domestic markets for the past several years. With the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods it stands to reason that they’re not in a position to import from Vietnam, etc. because there will be domestic overproduction.

"because there will be domestic overproduction."

Is that from a decrease in demand, or an increase in supply from other countries? I'm curious what the price elasticity of demand looks like for Chinese imports.

My interpretation is: it’s domestic overproduction because China isn’t exporting as much to US so it will consume domestically and then not have need for imports from the other SE Asia countries.

My question is more about where the US is then importing from. I assume some goods are more elastic than others. So will the US simply stop buying, or will it shift to buying elsewhere with lower tarrifs?

Could be, but China's imports from the US where not much (6% of their total) and cannot be easily substituted from SEA countries, as they were mostly importing a ton of agricultural stuff (soybeans, corn) plus fossils.

I understand 6% of china may be a much higher percentage of, say, Vietnam's export, but I just don't think Vietnam can produce that much more of that, quickly.

https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/explore/treemap?exporter=count...

Would it reduce the share of exports that US sells? If they decide to buy directly from China over the US given the higher price of everything in the US (keep in mind the raw components dont all appear out of nowhere).

I checked these numbers for Thailand: China: 24%, US: 6.73%

For Vietnam: China: 32.79%, US: 4.04%

I did too, from the Atlas of Economic Complexity (2023 data).

Cambodia's top 3 is China 42%, Thailand 20%, Vietnam 12%

Thailand's is China 28.7%, Japan 10.2%, US 6.3%

Vietnam's is China 40.8%, South Korea 15.9%, Japan 5%

https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/116/export-basket

https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/764/export-basket

https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/704/export-basket

Non-monetary tariffs: - Regulatory hurdles that prevent import (eg. CE requirements) - Currency manipulation (eg. RMB) - Domestic industrial subsidies (eg. export tax credits). ... you have a lot to learn about international trade.

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