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I think it boils down to the fact that water is softer than land, if anything goes wrong.

The Soviets did land most capsules on land, but those were very bumpy landings.

Soyuz still lands on land. Starliner landed (and will land) on land. Blue Origin's non-orbital ship lands on land.

Another benefit of water landings is you don't need to carry shotguns in the capsule to defend from bears.