The global economy is a complex system. Far more complex than software. All of the nerds will adjust their pocket protectors and spew their dubious word-salad (for or against), but the fact of the matter is that nobody truly knows what the nth-order effects will be until they happen.
AEI is just another church of Austrian economics--still burning incense for the ghost of Milton Friedman. If you told any of them, "Tariffs, or your mother dies in her sleep tonight.", they would reply in chorus, "Oh well, that's why I keep a picture to remember her by." If any of these people actually knew what they were talking about, they would be fabulously wealthy hedgies like Dalio or Simons, rather than "think-tank" shills.