Hacker News Reader

Parent Full thread

csours

People over-estimate the short term and under-estimate the long term.

View on HN

Compound growth starting from 0 is... always 0. Current LLMs have 0 general reasoning ability

We haven't even taken the first step towards AGI

WTF, my calculator is high school was already a step towards AGI.

0 and 0.0001 may be difficult to distinguish.

You need to show evidence of that 0.0001 first otherwise you're going off blind faith

I didn't make a claim either way.

LLMs may well reach a closed endpoint without getting to AGI - this is my personal current belief - but people are certainly motivated to work on AGI

Oh for sure. I'm just fighting against the AGI hype. If we survive another 10,000 years I think we'll get there eventually but it's anyone's guess as to when

People overestimate outcomes and underestimate timeframes

Reply on news.ycombinator.com