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Reason 2: Consider SpaceX's Falcon 9 record in terms of flight pace, total mass delivered, etc. This gives ample reason for optimism that Starship will ultimately work... though the flight test record of Starship so far has been notably spotty.
SpaceX does not seem inclined to give up anytime remotely soon, is bringing in tremendous cash flow via Starlink and has nearly unlimited ability to raise capital. Musk presumably has enough influence in Washington to keep the FAA on board... and that is the only permission they need to keep trying as long as it takes.
But this feels very different.
The release estimates and Elon's statements about it were BS for sure, but it's a very real thing.
Let's say somebody bought it 5 years ago, then sold his car last year. From his perspective - was it vaporwave or not ?
Some day, it will work of course. There are other companies operating robotaxi on scale for quite a long time already. It's just not that day yet, not for Tesla at least.
> software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available to buy,
for me, if I would've bought a Tesla, it would be vapourware for sure: Elon advertised it every chance he got and gets (this summer we will have it!), people bought it because of that and it's not there: that's vapourware.
The real thing, the broken promise, is level 4 or 5 and it's not available to anyone. They're not even at level 3.
Every launch is a learning experience and leads toward success.
Neither SpaceX nor Starship is subsidized in any way. SpaceX does have a contract for providing a Starship-based lander for Artemis's HLS, but that is (as with all other SpaceX government contracts) paid based on benchmarks and/or final delivery.