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If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes. Why not?

Sure --- if roborides are cheap enough and safe enough, more people will use them.

The immediate question for Tesla and their investors --- can they really provide "safe" robo rides using their current approach?

This is far from being proven since Tesla is only rated as Level 2 autonomy which according to Tesla itself, requires constant supervision. Placing passengers and the public in danger with inadequate technology is a textbook legal definition of negligence.

The longer term question; assuming they solve FSD --- is can they make tons of money from cheap rides? Enough to justify their current outlandish stock price.

Can they really do it? Tesla is making steady progress and has reached a few new milestones recently.

They recently launched their Robotaxi service in Austin, and it seems to be as good as Waymo or better. https://youtu.be/RcaBZenrCCs

They also recently autonomously delivered a car to a customer’s apartment straight from the factory line. https://youtu.be/lRRtW16GalE

Still only classified as Level 2 autonomy --- which requires constant supervision. This is according to Tesla itself.

https://www.synopsys.com/blogs/chip-design/autonomous-drivin...

Tesla also backs that up with actions since all of the robotaxis are supervised by a dude in the front seat that can abort the drive if the level 2 self-driving goes bonkers.

Supervision wasn't part of the original fantasy/sales pitch and calls into question their stated value proposition for competing with Uber and Waymo.

It seems you are not up to date on Bangalore (India). The unit economy of taxis has gotten out of hand. People now prefer bike taxis. Those were banned recently and reportedly that is causing even the Auto Rickshaw costs to spiral.

> If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes.

This seems straight out of the Uber pitch from its early days. "Our total addressable market is the entire auto industry because people will prefer taxis over driving themselves". And a decade later where are we? Most ridesharing apps are shrinking day by day.

The unit cost of a taxi isn't sustainable in a long term. People might want to pay for someone to drive them around but that is an expensive proposition.

Robo taxis now seem to be selling the same dream. Cut out the driver and that will make rides cheaper. But deploying taxi is going to be a huge expenditure. This might be doable with VC money upfront and even cheap just like the early days of Uber. But in the long run same thing is going to happen. Once all competition is gone robotaxis are not going to be any cheaper. It will be back to square one.

> If taxis get cheaper, people will use them in even more situations, like daily commutes.

That was my life in Beijing until I moved back to the states 8+ years ago. Forget about even buying a car, where would you park it? The subway was an option, especially after line 10 opened which was basically one line to work but...it was always really crowded and I didn't like standing for an hour (loop lines aren't very direct).

But there were too many cars, to make it work I had to shift my working hours, so I would leave super early (~6 AM) and come home around 3PM. It definitely didn't feel sustainable but it worked out (now I WFH...and in LA I lived right next to my lab...so I still avoid driving).

> Bangalore > Uber because the traffic is insane

Robotaxis can't deal with insane traffic, and would be disadvantaged when aggressive drivers learn how to trick robotaxis to give way submissively.

Some countries have highly developed road systems that are more predictable, and where drivers are more likely to cooperate rather than aggressively defect.

The business of robotaxis is equivalent to the business of cheap taxis, and we know cheap taxi services are not trillion dollar companies.

Which part of Tesla EV is a fantasy? The part where the volume explodes enough to justify a P/E of 170 today.

The US isn't like that. The people with the money for the magic taxi are in the burbs.

The fantasy that any of this nonsense is a sustainable business, especially when the charismatic leader completely FUBARed his government hobby project and is biting the hand that feeds him. Tesla's biggest source of revenue is the US government.

Suburbs and commuter towns desperately need Robotaxi - there’s literally no other option. Public transit isn’t coming, Waymo isn’t coming, Uber and Lyft are shrinking

Even a US city of 100,000 people, it can be really tough or impossible to get an Uber - good luck getting a ride from the airport at 12:30 in the morning

Why do you say Waymo isn't coming? Waymo is already available in the suburbs of LA, and it seems clear that Waymo will be expanding to any US metro area that doesn't put roadblocks in their way.

How many people in a city of 100,000 are getting rides from the airport at 12:30 in the morning ?

If you can't afford a car, time to migrate. The economics of the magic robot taxi aren't going to save you.

>8 million Teslas have been manufactured

Absurdly idiotic statement. Tesla has gone from 50k cars sold in 2015 to 1.78m in 2024. Their marketcap has increased from 31b to 1.3t in the same period. That’s not even factoring the potential growth of Optimis.

I bought a model Y dual motor in 2021 is it’s been hands down my best car ever. Almost zero maintenance. Yet more proof of never take stock advice from HN, in fact do the opposite in most circumstances. Elon derangement syndrome at its finest.

The Model Y is literally the best selling car on earth across all categories and people on HN are still calling it a fantasy.

This is just driven by partisan anti-Elon sentiment.

The fantasy projected by Tesla and sold to investors was a growth rate of 20-30% per year.

The reality is Tesla has never accounted for more than 2% of light vehicle sales worldwide. And over the last 2 years; instead of spectacular growth, sales have actually declined.

It's literally not, you're living in the past. While the model y was the best selling car in 2023, the RAV4 was the best selling car in 2024.

To be fair to the people on HN, it wasn't them who made Elon partisan. It was Elon himself.

Partisan or not, certain facts (like sales figures) should be treated as facts whether we like the person or not, right?

Exactly, this is 100% deserved, even self-inflicted, damage. Not nearly enough.

It was the best selling car. It no longer is[1].

And of course, Tesla isn't even in the top 10 for top selling brands of cars. Only about 1 in 50 new cars being sold is a Tesla.

Their valuation is largely based on hype.

[1] https://www.thedrive.com/news/the-worlds-best-selling-car-is...