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Comment by matttproud | Hacker News Reader

Coming soon (again) to a Florida near you: Liberty of Contract and Lochner Era jurisprudence.

It's an interesting tug of war, Florida and Texas vs other states. Businesses move there because it's the wild west and low regulation, but their climate costs are accelerating rapidly which is going to lead to what I can only describe as this image from São Paulo: https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/29/sao-paulo-inj...

What happens as these states continue to get squeezed by unfavorable long term economics while these businesses and the wealthy continue their performance art? What happens when it becomes constantly more difficult to attract labor to states where the quality of education is low (assuming workers who have or plan to have kids) and the cost of living continues to go up (insurance, etc). An interesting natural experiment and observations ahead.

(Florida resident for the last ~decade, but no longer as of late; US climate costs are approaching ~$1T/year, make good choices)

I've mentioned this before, but once the climate problems in Florida can no longer be handwaved away and Miami is perpetually in a shin-deep layer of water (this already happens after every major rain event, and it will gradually take longer and longer to return to normal, and eventually it will not), Floria will demand and probably get a hundred-billion-dollar engineering megaproject to try and fix the issue on the taxpayer's dime. This will happen because there is too much invested-- both financially in the real estate market, and emotionally in the climate change don't real market-- to walk away.

The NYC seawall depicted in The Expanse seems pretty plausible, it's such a dense area with so many people and so much income. And the seawall isn't really any different from the existing waterfront, so NYC remains recognizably NYC.

Florida though, everything is sprawling, there's no small area you could actually wall off. And the whole point of Florida is living near the beach, not concrete canyons.

You can't fix flooding in south Florida with seawalls or levees, because the bedrock is porous limestone: if there's too much water, it literally comes up through the ground. You can't pump floodwater away either, for the same reason.

> a hundred-billion-dollar engineering megaproject

if it was actually and effective solution and only cost that much, it'd be a bargain; I'd expect 5-10x

Let’s see how this is working in New Orleans with the levees subsiding

Construction (both infrastructure and housing) faces a shortage of low single digit million workers nationally. Now, account for deportations of workers in those industries. Account for 4M Boomers retiring per year. Account for an annual year over year decline in prime working age participation due to declining total fertility rates. Who is going to do this actual megaproject engineering and construction work? Print or borrow all the fiat you want, there aren't enough people for the body of work to be done.

Residents of Florida are already waiting months or over a year sometimes to get a roof replaced, because there are not enough workers.

South Florida's water supply under threat from saltwater intrusion crisis - https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/south-floridas-water-supp... - April 24th, 2025

Miami-Dade Saltwater Interface GIS Mapping - https://geoportal.sfwmd.gov/portal/home/item.html?id=128fce3...

‘The industry is in a crisis:’ Construction worker shortage delaying projects, driving up costs, experts say - https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2025/02/24/the-indus... - February 24th, 2025 ("Immigrants account for 31% of all workers in construction trades across the country. In Florida, an estimated 38% of construction workers are foreign-born.")

Miami is 'ground zero' for climate risk. People are moving to the area and building there anyway - https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/miami-is-ground-zero-for-cli... - April 26th, 2024 ("By 2060, about 60% of Miami-Dade County will be submerged, estimates Harold Wanless, a professor of geography and sustainable development at the University of Miami." ... "The trend shows how many Americans are ultimately willing to overlook environmental risks, even though most acknowledge its presence — a choice that could later devastate them financially.")

Climate Costs in 2040: Florida - https://www.climatecosts2040.org/files/state/FL.pdf (9,243 miles of seawall are needed. Florida has the highest cost of building seawalls. 23 Florida counties face at least $1 Billion expenditures. 24 municipalities are up against bills of over $100,000 per person)

Well-off, retired Boomers still have enormous political power in the USA, and have a history of voting to point the money funnel at themselves. If it's a choice between a stable, sustainable economy for everyone vs. a few years of nice retirement in Florida for them, they will vote to throw the next 5 generations under the bus to give them a few more years of living in comfort and leisure.

~2M voters 55+ die every year, ~5k per day. Millenials overtook Boomers as the largest generation circa 2019. How you push the olds in power out faster I leave to be solved for by others.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2020/04/28/millennia...

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