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Comment by falcor84 | Hacker News Reader

I don't see how it would "all pop" - same as with the internet bubble, even if the massive valuations disappear, it seems clear to me that the technology is already massively disruptive and will continue growing its impact on the economy even if we never reach AGI.

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Exactly like the internet bubble. I've been working in Deep Learning since 2014 and am very bullish on the technology but the trillions of dollars required for the next round of scaling will not be there if GPT-5 is not on the exponential growth curve that sama has been painting for the last few years.

Just like the dot com bubble we'll need to wash out a ton of "unicorn" companies selling $1s for $0.50 before we see the long term gains.

> Exactly like the internet bubble.

So is this just about a bit of investor money lost? Because the internet obviously didn't decline at all after 2000, and even the investors who lost a lot but stayed in the game likely recouped their money relatively quickly. As I see it, the lesson from the dot-com bust is that we should stay in the game.

And as for GPT-5 being on the exponential growth curve - according to METR, it's well above it: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-com...

I wouldn't say "well above" when the curve falls well within the error bars. I wonder how different the plot would look if they reported the median as their point estimate rather than mean.

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