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Comment by bjourne | Hacker News Reader

It is not realistic to expect a modern supply chain to be completely uninterruptible. The US has large stockpiles of (not very) rare earth metals and there are multiple ways of acquiring them in case China stops exporting. If China ever embargoes rare earth metals, the US can embargo Windows updates. Who do you think will last the longest?

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the US can embargo Windows updates

That's actually a funny and real example. For a long time there was a heat map that showed where the concentration of MSIE 6 was. It was China because every copy of Windows was pirated and may have also had government keys hard coded in the pirated copies. They were locked at the patch level the pirated version was made from and it was impossible to patch it otherwise.

Either way the US has nearly unlimited amounts of rare earth material in raw form. Its just much more expensive and time consuming to process it in the US and US regulations make it even more expensive. China does not follow our environmental laws and we breath the output of that. That's why they are processed in China. Processing it in the US would reduce global pollution for a hefty price.

> China does not follow our environmental laws and we breath the output of that.

Some of it perhaps. A lot of it is more localised, going into their dust clouds and water supplies. We should face the fact that moving rare earth processing to the US would mean either expensive mitigation measures or a lot more Americans experiencing health conditions - and probably both.

It's much easier to smuggle a USB drive with Windows updates than it is a few tonnes of metal.

Then China will switch a billion desktops to Linux and the US will still need rare earths.

I run desktop Linux. It's pretty hard to switch a billion desktops to Linux even if you do it one at a time. Not to mention a ton of problems with compatibility and corporate and government IT

The Chinese pirate Windows extensively, and the code has been leaked before. If IP law goes out the window, they will do whatever the hell they want.

> Then China will switch a billion desktops to Linux

Easier than smuggling a few tonnes of metal? Let me introduce you to my elderly parents...

old people in china don't have computers, they use smart phones

If all the US needs is a few tonnes the cartels can get it done no problem.

Is this a serious question? China probably has the full source code of Windows, which has leaked before and could be obtained easily by spies abroad who are employed at Microsoft. They also don't need Windows. They make practically all the computer gear, or enough of it that they can get by in a war. We need to make real essential goods to sustain ourselves, not a bunch of spyware products and "service industry" gigs.

I hear you are not actually addressing my argument? Stopping Windows Updates would do more short and long-term damage to the Chinese economy than embargoing rare earth metal exports ever will.

I disagree with that "argument" for the reasons I stated. China has a billion people, including tons of programmers. They will rapidly build whatever software they need if push comes to shove, potentially starting with Windows source code or Linux. There may be a team working for the Chinese government in secret doing this as we speak, ready to push an update to millions of PCs over China's heavily censored and manipulated Internet. They have mandatory software installed on practically every PC that could be used to facilitate this "upgrade" automatically. I promise, installing Linux or a hacked version of Windows can happen way faster than any mining operations to provide the minerals you're talking about.

As for proprietary software that runs on Windows, these would need to be handled individually. The simplest solution for them is to use old versions that need no connection to the outside world to function. There might be some risks involved but I think they will rapidly adjust.

In my opinion, China and probably other countries currently have stolen code for every major proprietary software product. They just won't use it openly or officially because of IP laws. In a war, all that will go out the window. They may not have quite as many competent people to throw at fixing issues with that software, but they will do what they can.

What about scenarios short of a war? Well, a lot of what China does for us involves IP. If they stop respecting a bunch of our IP and stop exporting things that only they currently make, they can cause tremendous damage. Go look in a store and see what is made in China. American cars currently rely on Chinese parts and materials. The Chinese can stop exporting steel if they want. They will certainly take damage but you seem to not understand the extent of the damage they can inflict on the West. Windows Updates won't mean a damn thing in the long run, or even the short run.

How would you effectively stop windows updates to china? Bypassing the Windows activation measures isn't stopping single pirates (or people still wanting Windows 7 updates intended for big business with legacy devices), the only way to stop windows updates is preventing access to it. It's impossible to do so while still having Windows as an Operating System that people outside high security environments use.

To be fair, Microsoft could be persuaded to add actual exploits to Windows contingent on the install being in China. In that case, they would want the Windows updates to be installed. There is thus no realistic scenario where exports of Windows updates would be possible or even desired by the US government.

1. What exactly do you think are delivered in Windows Updates?

2. Why do you think the pirated versions of Windows largely used in China are getting updates?

3. What do you think happens when patches aren't applied to Windows?

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