I think the eventual AI bust will lead to the same thing, as the costs for developing a domain-specific model have cratered over the past couple years.
AI/ML (and the infra around it) is overvalued at their current multiples, but the value created it real, and as the market grows to understand the limitations but also the opportunities, a more realistic and permanent boo' will occur.
It appears that the answer is "more likely yes than not".
Counting some examples:
- self driving / autonomous vehicles (seeing real deployments now with Waymo, but 99% deployment still ahead; meanwhile, $$$ billions of value destroyed in the last 10-15 years with so many startups running out of money, getting acquihired, etc)
- Humanoid robots... (potential bubble?? I don't know of a single commercial deployment today that is worth any solid revenues, but companies keep getting funded left / right)
I think you make a very interesting observation about these bubbles potentially being an inherent part of new technology expansion.
It makes sense too from a human behavior perspective. Whenever there are massive wins to be had, speculation will run rampant. Everyone wants to be the winner, but only a small fraction will actually win.