The second argument is that they have been silently truncating passwords to 16 characters forever, which they admit to. http://windows.microsoft.com/en-US/windows-live/microsoft-ac...
I _strongly_ suspect this means Hotmail has been storing cleartext passwords forever - people postulating strange workarounds whereby they might be able to detect password lengths in spite of storing hashes instead of passwords seem to me to be spectacularly unlikely compared to the much simpler alternative that they've been storing plaintext passwords truncated to 16 chars.
From what I remember, Hotmail was a FreeBSD shop before Microsoft bought them, and ended up spending a boatload of money switching all the servers to NT.
But to the main point, I agree the 16 char limit smells strongly of plaintext passwords. However, there might be an argument that at one point those were all hashed for a massive security update. That would maintain the 16 char limit of the plaintext password since that would have been what the hash was generated from, but solve the issue of actually storing plaintext. I'd like to give Hotmail/Microsoft/Windows Live ID the benefit of the doubt and not immediately assume that they are _currently_ storing plaintext. (yeah, I know I shouldn't give anyone the benefit of a doubt in regards to security procedure)