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Comment by nradov | Hacker News Reader

Global supply chains seem to be gradually breaking down due to a mix of politics, demographics, and armed conflicts. Everyone has become accustomed to the post-WWII system of global free trade but historically it is an aberration and everything will eventually revert to the mean. I wouldn't be surprised if China disintegrates into another civil war within the next few decades. We can't necessarily rely on foreign countries to make stuff for us anymore so if we want to have stuff we might have to make it ourselves.

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Problem is if we (any country really) tried to build everything ourselves while other countries engages in trade then we are at a major disadvantage.

Of course some things are more sensitive and should be made domestically even at lower efficiency / higher cost. But if that’s applied to everything then we are just shooting ourselves in the foot. Plus the opportunity cost of not doing something else that we are more uniquely positioned to excel at.

> China disintegrates into another civil war within the next few decades

I'm curious about your reasoning on this. China was not the one at the top of my list of "Major world powers likely to have a civil war sooner than later"

China has had major internal violent conflicts many times: in 1967, 1960, 1937, 1916, 1856, and so on. Another civil war probably isn't imminent but based on historical patterns it's entirely possible in our lifetimes. There could be an external shock in terms of a severe disruption in food or energy imports, or an internal power struggle between CCP factions. Xi Jinping isn't immortal and no one can predict what might happen when he leaves power.

It is highly unlikely because the government has an explicit goal of bringing harmony, and the people have had such a uniform upbringing that even their discussions of politics is around policy effectiveness, economics of implementation and metrics where as here in the US it is republican vs democrat and the topic is about Transgender issue or something that is not policy but a belief or some intangible thing that does not make a material difference for the majority of people.

Nah. You could have said the same thing about China's government at many other times throughout history — right up until the violence started. Nothing has really changed. How much "harmony" did the people in Tiananmen Square have in 1989?

Agree. At this point, a civil war is more likely in the United States than in China.

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