I am really interested in the future of Opus; is it going to be an absolute monster, and continue to be wildly expensive? Or is the leap from 4 -> 4.5 for it going to be more modest.
Yeah, given how multi-dimensional this stuff is, I assume it's supposed to indicate broad things, closer to marketing than anything objective. Still quite useful.
I'm a user who follows the space but doesn't actually develop or work on these models, so I don't actually know anything, but this seems like standard practice (using the biggest model to finetune smaller models)
Certainly, GPT-4 Turbo was a smaller model than GPT-4, there's not really any other good explanation for why it's so much faster and cheaper.
The explicit reason that OpenAI obfuscates reasoning tokens is to prevent competitors from training their own models on them.
And I would expect Opus 4 to be much the same.
Benchmarks are good fixed targets for fine tuning, and I think that Sonnet gets significantly more fine tuning than Opus. Sonnet has more users, which is a strategic reason to focus on it, and it's less expensive to fine tune, if API costs of the two models are an indicator.
Smallest, fastest model yet, ideally suited for Bash oneliners and online comments.