Honestly, if Apple opened up iOS to OEM licensees, but made clear that they were still going to ship their own devices? Who in the blue hell wants to go toe to toe with Apple on hardware?

Granted, you'd still have a few (insane) OEMs willing to cough up the money to try, but mostly on the notion that they will convert a portion of the coveted iOS userbase to their brand - a userbase that doesn't exist in WinPhone land. At all.

So really, where exactly will OEMs find the motivation to ship any WinPhones at all once Microsoft enters the hardware game for themselves? They'd be paying exorbitant sums to continue using an OS that already wasn't selling, just so they can now compete with a player that has every advantage available.

I'd be incredibly surprised if we don't see a mass OEM exodus from WinPhone if MS enters the hardware game. Not that there's really that big of an exodus to be had in the first place, though...