Interesting - that’s a 1T market just in the US alone. Probably another 1T in EU. It’s unclear how much there is in the rest of the world (China is basically inaccessible to US firms and after that it’ll depend on low wage local labor vs AI models).

There’s also models getting more capable (larger share of the GDP) and GDP growing more quickly due to automation of GDP activities. But even without that it’s at least a 2T/year opportunity (assuming the model is even a little accurate).

To me this validates the bull case that is being raised in private equity. The major risks are not if the market or valuations exist but whether it’ll be captured by a few major players or if open models and local inference eat away at centralization.