I think part of the discrepancy is that you're talking about abusers you've "heard of by name". The other is that people like Weinstein and Epstein clearly have power, and by default the powerful are left to their own devices (of course their victims and many others around are aware, but don't speak up). I think that, knowing that, one can calibrate a more accurate predictor. I think, if one hangs around a crowd long enough, one can typically gauge who's who in that crowd.