ChatGPT is not a model, it is a product. My credit card charges me for ChatGPT, not GPT5. Products have moats because once you solve the problem and become a habit, consumers never switch. Nobody switches from Google, nobody switches from Instagram, nobody switches from AWS to whatever godforsaken hertzner self hosted solution hackernews says is cheaper than the cloud.

Nobody wants the same thing but cheaper, or the same thing but marginally better. You either solve the problem first, or you lose. The first site to ever threaten the dominance of google.com is chatgpt.com! Why? Because it’s NOT just “google but better”, it’s an entirely new thing.

> To me, this is absolutely worthless information. That DOES NOT mean that ChatGPT is in the clear and nobody else will overtake them

Do you think chatgpt.com will be worse the 5th most visited website 5 years from now? I’ll gladly take that bet, let’s do $100, i’ll even give you 2:1 odds. Do you think openAI will be bankrupt in <10 years? Let’s bet $1000, hell I’ll give you 10:1 odds.

Chatgpt.com alone is clearly at least as valuable as instagram.com, soon to be as valuable as google.com, and long term more than either.