> It may be possible to run a "good enough" model on consumer hardware eventually

10-15 years?!!!! What is the definition of good enough? Qwen3 8B or A30B are quite capable models which run on a lot of hardware even today. SOTA is not just getting bigger, it's also getting more intelligence and running it more efficiently. There have been massive gains in intelligence at the smaller model sizes. It is just highly task dependent. Arguably some of these models are "good enough" already, and the level of intelligence and instruction following is much better from even 1 year ago. Sure not Opus 4.5 level, but still much could be done without that level of intelligence.