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Comment by zwnow | Hacker News Reader

You are thankfully wrong. I watch lots of talks on the topic from actual experts. New models are just old models with more tooling. Training data is exhausted and its a real issue.

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Well, my experts disagree with your experts :). Sure, the supply of available fresh data is running out, but at the same time, there's way more data than needed. Most of it is low-quality noise anyway. New models aren't just old models with more tooling - the entire training pipeline has been evolving, as researchers and model vendors focus on making better use of data they have, and refining training datasets themselves.

There are more stages to LLM training than just the pre-training stage :).

Not saying it's not a problem, I actually don't know, but new CPU's are just old models with more improvements/tooling. Same with TV's. And cars. And clothes. Everything is. That's how improving things works. Running out of raw data doesn't mean running out of room for improvement. The data has been the same for the last 20 years, AI isn't new, things keep improving anyways.

Well from cars or CPUs its not expected for them to eventually reach AGI, they also don't eat a trillion dollar hole into us peasants pockets. Sure, improvements can be made. But on a fundamental level, agents/LLMs can not reason (even though they love to act like they can). They are parrots learning words, these parrots wont ever invent new words once the list of words is exhausted though.

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