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Comment by allears | Hacker News Reader

Now that the US has abdicated world leadership in so many areas, it's good to see China pushing the envelope.

They’re the first electrostate, and their success is our global success as their innovation and exports destroy the demand for fossil fuels globally.

Ember Energy: China Cleantech Exports Data Explorer - https://ember-energy.org/data/china-cleantech-exports-data-e... (updated monthly)

China’s Oil Hoarding Clouds Outlook for Slowing Demand Growth - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/china-oil... | https://archive.today/YLDHL - December 11th, 2025

> China’s oil demand growth is forecast to be 150,000 barrels a day next year, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Energy Aspects was the most bullish, expecting daily growth at 320,000 barrels, mainly on rising petrochemical demand. Still, the prediction is a year-on-year drop.

> “It’s an irreversible path,” said Ye Lin, vice president of oil markets at consultancy Rystad Energy, which also forecasts demand growth falling in 2026. “The market is now feeling the impact of China’s fast-growing EV fleet.”

Rhodium Group: Electric Trucks and the Future of Chinese Oil Demand - https://rhg.com/research/electric-trucks-and-the-future-of-c... - July 1st, 2025

> Analysts have been discussing “peak oil” for decades. We’re hardly equipped to wade into that debate ourselves, even as Chinese demand will be a critical variable in future global oil demand. But the ongoing electrification of China’s vehicle fleet, especially in trucking, suggests long-term headwinds to diesel and gasoline demand. We estimate the total electric vehicle fleet is already displacing over 1 million barrels per day in implied oil demand—equivalent to roughly the daily oil production of Oman. That level is likely to rise by around 600,000 barrels per day over the next 12 months.

(TLDR At current electrification rates, China is destroying ~1M barrels/day of oil demand every 24 months)

HN Search: china electrostate - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

HN Search: china renewables - https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

Would be humorous in retrospect if all the dire forecasts about "peak oil" turned out to be the opposite problem: collapse in demand for oil.

That would be one of the better outcomes because there are a number of things for which it is very hard to use other stuff as a substitute. Oil is way too precious to be burned up.

China doesn't have much oil. There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well. Their move away from oil is more national security even if it does help the environment.

> There dependency on oil is a huge weakness, and they are easily blockaded as well, making the problem of importing oil in wartime problematic as well.

How are they "easily blockaded"? I thought their shipbuilding capacity exceeds that of the US, and their navy is now larger.

Look at a map, China doesn't have open access to the ocean. They have Japan, Taiwan in their way, the only help out they have is the South China Sea, but even that is crowded and relies on Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia not being again them. They can only really get oil from the middle east through the straight of Malacca (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malacca_dilemma), which is really easy to cut off. It doesn't matter if you can build lots of ships if the US navy can take them out as they leave port into the open ocean.

So overland is their best option, but Russia is huge, lacks infrastructure (no oil pipelines in the far east), and anyways, isn't always China's friend. Western China abuts some Central asian countries with oil (and Iran in the middle), but again, not so friendly, lots of mountains to get trains through, and it is still far away from East China where the oil is actually needed.

So...they have lots of coal and are really pushing into renewables and nuclear. Nuclear is the kind of thing where you can stockpile a few thousand years worth of fuel with a few ships from Australia in peacetime. And if your economy relies more on electric trains and cars, you are going to be ok if someone cuts off or restricts your oil supply.

> It doesn't matter if you can build lots of ships if the US navy can take them out as they leave port into the open ocean.

If China can build lots of ships, it can build lots of warships. I'm skeptical the US Navy would have it that easy.

Also, as the US Navy ships trying to enforce a blockade would be getting pelted by land-based anti-ship missiles.

The USA can also hammer them from nearby island based airbases. It isn’t easy to just saturate them with ships. Maybe if they can make breakthru with drones. Right now their best strategy is just be exposed less by making people drive EVs instead of gasoline vehicles. It also has other benefits like getting the rest of the world off of oil, and being able to sell the cars and clean energy production needed to do that, and also cleaner air. China wins 3 way here, so it’s really a very smart choice for them, and it gives them even more money to draw on to continue building a modern military.

Given the difference in manufacturing capacity and competency, I'd assume China would win a "hammer them with missiles" fight. Even if the US missiles were better quality, I'd assume China could make more, faster, and eventually the US would run out.

I don’t think they are there yet, but they might be soon. When that happens, I hope they focus on peaceful business environments instead of using their clout more aggressively.

Can you expound? A problem in demand for oil for whom (besides perhaps petro states that cannot meet their budgets at low global oil prices [1] [2])?

[1] https://i.ibb.co/0jDyB6mX/Crude-Price-Forecasts-Are-Below-Le...

[2] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

Yeah, any major economic change can be destabilizing. Particularly if there are powerful incumbents who want to maintain the status quo. We fought a civil war over that sort of thing. So a "problem" in that sense, not that it wasn't the right thing to do.

China is pushing this because they have an oil problem. They are deeply dependent on oil that ships via sea and any conflict could quickly starve them of access to oil. Thus a focus on trying to get some energy independence.

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