Comment by wolvoleo | Hacker News Reader

Comment by wolvoleo | Hacker News Reader

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I do really hope the AI bubble will collapse soon. The sooner it blows the less damage it will do. And hopefully we can go back to doing real work without all these leadership guys breathing down our necks to see if we are doing enough of this AI all their shareholders want us to be involved in.

It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well. But we'll just have to deal with it. I'm sure it will happen sooner rather than later.

PS: I'm not an AI hater as such. It definitely has its usecases where it shines. The problem is like with all hypes; it's not good at everything and it won't be all golden mountains tomorrow like the investors expect. This overhyped investor circlejerk is what screws up technology. It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse. All things that have their merits but somehow investors thought it would change the world overnight and make them insta-rich. Obviously didn't happen and it won't happen now.

> It happened to blockchain, it happened to metaverse.

I don't think AI is comparable to these technologies.

AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc. While the metaverse was just a fantasy with no tangible benefit other than Zuck trying to create his own platform to take on Apple and Google.

Blockchain had some potential in certain fields, but it wasn't user-friendly or usable by many people.

> AI had a real impact on certain daily activities, such as search, coding, etc.

You aren't addressing the issue at hand, the problem isn't a total lack of impact, it's the cost of that impact, both the actual and the opportunity cost of it.

Currently, the AI "revolution" is running on pure credit - as every other bubble - even the operating costs of the AI supply chain exceed its income and economic impact. Their capital expenses are orders of magnitude higher and constitute a severe drag on the rest of the economy.

There's no indication that anything would change in the future, more AI leads to less employment, less disposable income and less income for the AI providers - it's a race to the bottom.

If this isn't reversed, it will soon end in bank bailouts, more inflation and income degradation for those bellow the top tier.

I’m not sure how I’ll feel if it actually happens, but just even entertaining the idea of LLM companies getting bailed out makes me irrationally angry. Like, really? Gonna go for the hat trick here? Housing crisis and Covid stimulus didn’t fuck everyone over enough?

It’s not like I can even leave for greener pastures, there’s nowhere to go.

It won't bail out AI ventures directly but it will bail out the banks that financed them.

Not a trick, if banks fall everything falls. what is infuriating: that we can see the value isn't there to justify the cost, yet that unprecedented amounts continue to flood into this tech segment, especially to the loudest and popular and over promising flavour of it: GenAI.

I'm willing to bet that the metaverse (defined by me as AR glasses) is a future that's coming and that Zuck was just too early, just like Palm Pilot was arguably too early. The use cases are too compelling, effectively a computer assistant that can tell you anything and everything about what you did or are doing. Yes, privacy people will hate it but the rest will eat it up just like they don't care about privacy on their phones.

An AR-glass assistant is very different from the metaverse Zuck blew tens of billions on, which was a shittier version of Second Life in VR, with a side of blockchain

He wasn't early with a good thing; he was unfathomably disconnected from reality with a bad thing

Not really, there are good applications for metaverse tech, they just need time to mature. However I don't really see it in the realm of social media. It's not something that's for everyone, at least not yet. I don't understand what meta was thinking there.

It's amazing for gaming though, and for architecture, 3D product design collaboration. I use it a lot daily and I have 5 headsets (plus two AR ones) but I also know it's not for everyone. It's also really good for porn which somehow in America isn't seen as a real industry but in my view it's a good usecase for the tech too. Anything that relies on immersion benefits from it.

AI has its niches too where it's genuinely useful (and coding really is a niche, it's not a mainstream activity) but just like metaverse they're trying to cram it in situations where it doesn't really add any value.

Metaverse as originally described (no idea what it's become since) was a really bad Second Life, which was already more than a decade old if I remember right.

> It will suck even for us in europe due to shortsighted pension funds having invested in AI as well.

Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all.

The real problem is that when the US sniffs, Europe gets a full blown cough. We are way too dependent on the US, we have seen that 2007ff, and we haven't changed a single darn thing.

>Only to a very small degree and systems like Germany THANK GOD do not have any AI exposure at all.

Well put, and it makes sobering reading to see the impact of what happened the last time Germany was deeply reliant on money from the US.

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