Regarding "AI systems will be better than any human at any cognitive task", while I believe that this may become possible in a distant future, with systems having a quite different structure, I do not see any evidence of such a thing becoming possible during the next decade or two.

Nothing that I have seen described here on HN or elsewhere, by the most enthusiast users of AI, who claim that their own productivity has been multiplied, does not demonstrate performance in cognitive tasks even remotely comparable with that of a competent human, much less better performance.

All that I see is that the AI systems outperform humans for various tasks only because they had access in their training data to much more information than most humans are allowed to access, because they do not have enough money to obtain such access, both because the various copyright paywalls and also because of the actual cost of storage and retrieval systems.

Using an AI agent may be faster than if you were given access to the training data and you would use conventional search tools on it, but the speed may be illusory, because when I search something and I have access to the original sources I can validate the search results faster and with much more certainty than when I try to ponder about the correctness of what AI has provided, e.g. whether a program produced by it really does what I have requested and it is bug free (in comparison with having access to its training programs and being able to choose myself what to copy and paste).

I hope that paid access to AI tools gives better results, but the AI replies that popular search engines, like Google and Bing, force upon their users have made Internet searches much worse not better, as their answers always contain something else than I want, and this is in the best case, when the answers are not plainly wrong.