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I thought the state’s supporters were actually very large in number and the dominant force in Iran. After all past protests, like about the woman who was disappeared and killed, were smaller and were suppressed quickly. What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?

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>What changed? Is it demographics - like are there larger numbers of young people who aren’t for a theocracy?

Some internal factor opaque to western media. Their economy's in the shitter, perhaps. Or the so-called water shortage. Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops, I could not say.

> Though what it could be exactly, that western intelligence wouldn't be willing to trumpet from the mountaintops

Germany used to have great Middle Eastern intel, but they either lost it or got better about leaks. American HUMINT in the Middle East is notoriously awful, so I'd err on the side of us being as confused as everyone else.

I think intelligence like historiography is extremely bad at detecting processes as they are happening, as it cannot understand behaviors of humans that are not part of large bureaucracies it usually researches. Therefore, intelligence in general usually fails in anticipating revolutions

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