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Comment by tome | Hacker News Reader

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If history is anything to go by, expect a fire at the Capitol some time in October resulting in a national emergency being declared.

You can take that to your bookie.

Talk is cheap. Are you prepared to put money, or anything valuable, where your mouth is?

Yea! Suggesting the guy who refuses to acknowledge he lost the 2020 election, caused a whole to do on January 6th over it, has printed up TRUMP 2026 hats in the White House, and constantly “jokes” about being owed a 3rd term might not be too interested in following the rules is totally unhinged and a “strong claim”. And the only way to prove you’re serious about this opinion is to gamble on it!

> And the only way to prove you’re serious about this opinion is to gamble on it!

If it's a strong claim it's not much of a gamble, is it? Talk is cheap.

I miss the days when having a financial stake in something was considered a conflict of interest, and not a weakly held belief. Your whole transactional nihilism schtick here is extremely gross. People can have genuine beliefs, and share those without being motivated by pumping their own bags.

Showing that one's claim is not hollow can be achieved in a variety of ways. A prediction market was just a suggestion of one possibility. I'm open to other ways that bojan can show that their claim isn't just empty venting.

DO YOU THINK MOST PEOPLE WOULD AGREE? CARE TO MAKE IT INTERESTING? WHY DON'T YOU PUT IT UP ON POLYMARKET, BRO? OTHERWISE, YOUR WORDS ARE EMPTY VENTING.

(See how dumb this is?)

Yeah, that's pretty dumb. It's also not what I said. The original comment is a vague insinuation

> Those who know their history also know that the current American administration is of a kind that usually ascends following the rules, but then never voluntarily leaves power.

and not really becoming of a top level Hacker News post. I requested a clarification from bojan and they did not respond to the request. We're all welcome to make our own interpretation of that.

Trump makes a lot of claims of unfair elections, declaring a state of emergency and is talking about a third term. Hard to really know for real what will happen but it is suspicious.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/02/26/trump-ele...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

Or ICE ensuring it is a ”fair” election with the ”correct” outcome.

Not OP, but that post clearly was alluding to Hitler coming to power democratically. That they don't need to worry was a very dark joke. Anyway, it's just history.

Not just Hitler.

There are more recent examples in Europe, like Putin, Orban and Vucic. All of them got elected fairly, and all of them engaged in the process of slowly but surely breaking democratic institutions and checks and balances down. The guidebook is actually exactly the same. Putin is now 25 years in power, Orban 16 years and Vucic 14 years.

You could say that those Eastern European democracies were fragile to begin with, but what MAGA is so far very much successfully doing is fully matching the existing proven guidebook.

If Polymarket were legal in my country I'd actually consider betting on it.

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