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Comment by moi2388 | Hacker News Reader

I think you underestimate how much Iranians hate their current regime..

They hate it a lot less today than they did 2 weeks ago.

Interesting you should say that, as not a single one of the Iranian emigrants that I know would agree with you.

Extrapolating the politics of people who stayed based on the politics of people who chose to leave is not going to get you very far.

I’m aware of selection bias; I’m basing my view on their perception of family and friends “back home”.

Iranians who left and live in the west want Iran to be the west. Nothing changed.. they all held those beliefs before the war.

You overestimate how many people hate the regime and under estimate how many hate Israel and don't want to be ruled by them. No one is rising up not even the Kurds.

Telegram is full of gigantic rallies all hours of the day and night supporting the Iranian government. Even street interviews with young women (no hijab!) claiming they were formerly protesters but aren't going to tolerate foreigners bombing their country.

Do you have some solid sources on the ground to the contrary?

All the Iranians I personally know. About 15 families.

As the sister comment alludes, how many of those 15 families are in Iran?

My professor from my graduate program and his family are all Iranian. It's no surprise that they anti-regime: his wife's uncles were generals in the Shah's army, and were "disappeared" during the Revolution. They've been living in Japan for ~40 years. Hardly indicative of the opinion of the "man on the street" in Tehran, Isfahan, or Mashhad.

Presumably you are not in Iran. Where people are getting bombed and feel the consequences of “finally [getting] rid of the Iranian regime”.

Some circles might have only pro-Trump Americans. Others might only have anti-Trump Americans. And yet your experience is all-knowing? With 15 families? Outside of Iran (presumably).

Have they risen up yet and taken over their town? Has anyone?

Every expat is an expat for a reason. They are in no way representative of what people living on the country think.

They may hate their govt. But they hate Israel even more. And getting ruthlessly bombed by Israel and US, yeah that will not do what Trump and Netanyahu think it will.

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