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Comment by breppp | Hacker News Reader

For example here from March 10 detailing a progressive decline by 92% in ballistic missiles https://www.jpost.com/defense-and-tech/article-889435

Previously I had seen 95% somewhere else but cannot find the link, but that's close enough.

The reason why this is credible is Iran is limited by its amount of launchers, and Israel is very effective at destroying these. With complete air superiority and drones flying over, it's very easy to spot the heat signature for a launcher.

Add to that the launchers that were effectively buried at the start of the war when the openings to Iran's underground missile storage facilities were bombed.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-updat...

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Launch numbers are not an indicator of launch capacity fwiw.

Iran’s fewer launches are now hitting their targets more.

Actually no, Iran's missiles aren't that accurate and if you count those that disintegrate on the way, hit open areas or are intercepted you get very few missiles that are able to hit from the very few that are launched.

This can be seen in much less overall damage than the 12 day war or the death count which is lower

Jpost is an Israeli propaganda outlet not a credible source. In fact Iran just hit Tel Aviv again.

That's hardly true, but sure try this one or just google yourself

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/global-affairs/iranian...

Like I said, Iran just hit Tel Aviv again. They do this every day in addition to destroying Israeli/US assets across the Middle East. There has been no slow down, despite Trump announcing nearly every day that Iran has been defeated. The western media is shambles trying to spin the reality of the situation.

https://x.com/MintPressNews/status/2032983767430664447

As far as I can tell what you see today in your link is a fire caused by the pieces that fall after a successful interception, these are not as dangerous as an actual missile, as they lack a warhead, especially for Israelis that are indoors while in alarms.

In any case, you are arguing something else. It is a fact that the number of ballistic missiles Iran is capable of launching had fallen sharply, this is very easy to see by the reduction of alarms in Israel, which is served by an open API. You are arguing whether missiles ever hit.

Because Iran ability to launch had fallen sharply, less Israeli citizens are hurt and less interceptors are needed. This is also progressive, as the days pass, Iran loses more and more launchers and is less capable of launching more missiles. Therefore even in the unlikely event of an Israeli interceptor crisis, the situation is rather favorable to Israel

> It is a fact that the number of ballistic missiles Iran is capable of launching had fallen sharply

Yesterday night, Iran was able to hit multiple targets in Tel Aviv including rail infrastructure, a factory and a few buildings. They reportedly launched around 300 missiles almost on par with what they launched in Feb but with more direct hits.

> Therefore even in the unlikely event of an Israeli interceptor crisis, the situation is rather favorable to Israel

Most of the missiles were destroyed by interceptors. If they run out, we will be looking at huge casualties and infra damage within few days.

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