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Poker has elements of both luck and skill. The luck element + wagering money is what makes it gambling.

On a long enough timeframe, the luck averages out.

That sounds fucking horrible for coding.

And that's why poker is a poor metaphor for agentic coding.

It's the perfect metaphor? Playing correctly/optimally is +EV. But nobody starts there, and many people don't ever get there.

The main difference is that you're exploiting your own weaknesses, rather than others'. Limitations in typing speed, information gathering, pattern recognition.

In that case, couldn't you substitute painting, horseback riding or knitting? Nothing about poker has anything to do with agentic coding except "it's something you can learn."

In poker some people are gambling. Some may be self-ware, but many aren't and misunderstand why they win or lose. Poker inconsistently and unreliably rewards gambling, much like vibe-coding.

everybody who's playing poker is gambling, skilled or not.

without a rigorous definition of "gambling", such discussions are pointless