That trend held true for the past three years, but it doesn't feel as safe to me now.

But memory costs are going way up. And both OpenAI and Anthropic bumped up the price of their frontier models in April.

Costs will plummet as better hardware becomes available and priced reasonable so that people can more easily run their own open models locally. But that won't help Antropic/OpenAI make more money, quite the opposite.

A lot of the new hardware requires retrofitting existing datacenters for appropriate cooling, or is waiting to be installed because the new datacenters haven't been built yet. By the time they're installed it's likely a lot of Blackwell GPUs are going to be very out of date. Newer hardware is turning into huge capex bills along with the corresponding depreciation costs. Basically, it's not the same as plugging a new GPU into your desktop, the upfront investment is extremely expensive and all the numbers I'm seeing suggest that the newer GPUs are costing more to run, not less.