> The actual cost is going to drop 99%
Do you mean the marginal cost by the producer, or the cost on the consumer? I can't see the price of electricity falling much, and the demand curve is apparently exponential if the hype is to be believed.
Do you mean the marginal cost by the producer, or the cost on the consumer? I can't see the price of electricity falling much, and the demand curve is apparently exponential if the hype is to be believed.
Computing has always been about how to wring out more efficiency. The ENIAC was 150,000 watts, with 3 phase 240 volt power, and cost about $500,000.
My day to day laptop (a year old) is 35 watts, with 1 phase 20 volt power, and cost $1,000, so that's 99.98% less power consumption, 99.8% cheaper, and it has about 10 orders of magnitude more computing power, all on a time span of 80 years.
There's always a chance we'll have some dramatic gains far larger than DeepSeek's optimizations a year ago, but it hasn't happened again yet at even that scale. It would be nice but I certainly wouldn't count on it.