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The most glaring gap in this "analysis" is that it's too early to tell. I don't understand how people can be certain in both extreme viewpoints.

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How much time has to pass before we can dismiss the widely cited predictions by the media (and also many popular bloggers and podcasters) that AI will lead to mass joblessness? Those people need to at the very least acknowledge that their forecasts are so far wrong.

To answer your question: It depends on your claim. All claims of mass unemployment thus far are evidently not true. All claims of mass unemployment in the near future: We'll have to wait and see.

The prediction that AI will lead to mass unemployment is largely a widespread fear more than an observation.

AI washing: On the one hand, you have periodic mass layoffs that could be related, but also could be "AI washing", with the companies citing AI to sound progressive when, in fact, they just over-hired.

Multiple independent sources find no broad signal. (Anthropic's labor research, Yale Budget Lab, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk)

I'd still like to know more about the junior situation, though.

Both sides should take a deep breath and stay away from predictions.

Both sides of what?

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