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For comparison, Remain advocates predicted a fall in GDP of 3.6-6.0%:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/brexit-would-put-our-...

So it seems like they have been spot on? TFA quotes the OBR as estimating a 4% negative impact and the CEFR estimate of -5.5% cumulative impact.

I should mention that the Remain advocate estimates of 3.6-6.0 were for a time frame of two years: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analy...

There has been no negative impact. Every claim of negative impact falls apart when investigated. I wrote about one example on another thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48473246

The actual data doesn't support any of these estimates.

Note the response of the guy I was arguing with. Faced with the reality that the sources he/she trusted are lying, they rejected the honest source they asked for because of "bias". This kind of motivated reasoning is everywhere in this debate. Quite annoying.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com