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Comment by simianwords | Hacker News Reader

The problem with this type of thinking is that it deliberately ignores the times that bubbles were predicted incorrectly.

Imagine there was a guy. He kept predicting that a war may happen in 1 year. Keeps getting it wrong. In 59 a years a war does happen. He then retroactively justifies his wrong predictions by claiming “but people are irrational and it’s hard to predict”.

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Past bubbles I read about were recognized correctly for years before they popped. The pop was hard to predict, the bubble was routinelly recognized. These were not wrong prections, these were correct assesments of the situation. Bubble exists before it pops.

Markets being irrational is again, nothing controversial.

That is history. Your war predicting guy is a made up analogy. And he may just be correct about his assesment of the situation - war is being actively planned and prepared, actors want it and we are all waiting till Trump or Hitler or whoever decides that "now".

With respect to Zitron, he has timed it as another commenter pointed out and his timing was incorrect.

Yes. And he stopped making predictions after, which is literally "learning from the experience and maybe even studied a bit more". He openly talked about the fact he expected it to pop sooner on podcast.

He is not giving investment advice, in any case.

What advice is he giving? Basically nothing.

You can’t keep saying bubble will pop and then retract. People catch on.

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