> Prediction markets allow us to quantify risk.
Might as well derivate it from existing casino's roulette games, it's not like anyone betting on these are subject experts.
It's pure greed and fomo, sprinkled with a bit of cheating and corruption.
Might as well derivate it from existing casino's roulette games, it's not like anyone betting on these are subject experts.
It's pure greed and fomo, sprinkled with a bit of cheating and corruption.
Someone who is a "subject matter expert" (and given how specific many of these predictions are, being an expert usually means you are an insider with non-public information) can indeed make money as long as a bunch of idiots with worse information place bets thinking they know the outcome. This is considered to be a crime when done with other securities.
Interested if you believe insider trading of stocks should be legal - aren't insiders just providing the market with more information about that stock?
EDIT: I suppose I also need to be able to purchase the “shares” in the “market”