well its typically when it becomes clear that the private equity firms taking the risk decide they can not get the returns they need, forcing the backstoppers such as Nvidia to take that burden, and the whole ecosystem collapses.
My guess is at least another 2 years, as most people don't use AI yet, or maybe more precisely, AI is not used in the underlying workflows (which are invisible to the consumer) that make up most people's jobs.
Who knows if I am right. My original post was just pointing out that what you say is about timing, not whether it's true or not, because of course its true.