Not sure if it's different over there, but farming in Australia (whether with questionable water reliance or not) is considered sacrosanct and pushback would be a political risk. Any foreign-owned alfalfa exporters would just throw lobbyists behind broader farming coalitions (small farmers, ranchers, locals, etc) to protect themselves. Residents will cop water restrictions before then, as has happened before.
That's been the same playbook up here but we're on the verge of uncharted territory as the hydro generators will soon be forced to shut down outside of Las Vegas. It's one thing to ask everyone to take shorter showers and xeriscape their yard, but it's a whole different level if nobody can afford to run the AC in 110F/43C heat.
Water rights unfortunately don't really work like "residents > business."
No, but voters do. And the veneers are coming off around water conservation.
I wish I shared your optimism about the power of American democracy.
Just as the residents' needs get more existential, so do the businesses'
It's not only water, power prices are going to spike when there's no hydroelectric coming from Glen Canyon or Hoover Dams. How many 10's of millions of people get some of their power and or water from this one river?
We don't disagree on the problem. We disagree on whether that means suddenly residents' needs will overcome business interests. They haven't for 100 years in the Southwest. Why would they now?
No, the last thing to survive will be alfalfa in the Imperial Valley. We'll see the elimination of Social Security before those water rights are imperiled.
they'll just start pumping groundwater again which will cause huge earthquakes