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Comment by mitthrowaway2 | Hacker News Reader

I apply more of a penalty to people who are confidently wrong, and who don't, In retrospect, notice that they were wrong and analyze why they got it wrong . LeCun is very confident and doesn't seem to have done much introspection.

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But isn't that also pretty much everybody?

I often see people vindicate those who predicted really fast takeoff to AGI / ASI, because the capabilities have obviously been taking off extremely quickly. But still not as quickly as many predicted! To me, the people who confidently predicted that we'd all be out of a job by 2024 or 2025 have been just as wrong as LeCun has been.

Yeah, so the ones who have credibility are probably the ones who said "you know, it's really hard to anticipate timelines, but here's the general directions that I see things will go..."

Yes, and I feel like I see that perspective from many random commentators here and elsewhere, but that the prominent voices have been more likely to take a more confident stance on one side or the other.

No, most people I know have sane takes on AI capabilities and potential.

It's only online that I've seen these wild predictions, where it coincidentally is profitable to say them. These people are looking g for clicks or to stay relevant, so they have to say crazy stuff.

I agree, but what I mean is, who among the prominent LeCun level voices has been more vindicated by events than him? I agree that people I talk to here and in real life are more uncertain and circumspect.

What predictions has LeCun made that were vindicated by events?

He didn't think LLMs would lead us to AGI by now, and indeed they have not.

Did, say, Yoshua Bengio claim that we'd have AGI by October 2026? I must have missed it.

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